Two
elections to the local legislative assembly, within a year, have left
the political situation in Northern Ireland exactly the same. Only
different.
The
same because the two largest parties remain the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin (SF). They are the only parties who
can form an Executive within the Assembly, on numbers only, though
other parties, such as the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and the
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) could take seats on the Executive. Their
recent move onto the opposition benches means that's unlikely.
Different
because the gap between the DUP and SF tightened significantly and
the project involving the two smaller parties making up enough ground to
catch their rivals in their bid for power shuddered to a halt. The
SDLP held their seats, on an increased vote, thus standing still. The
UUP got thumped, their leader standing down, even before the final
count was concluded.
Speculation is mounting that the rump UUP may,
as part of the re-alignments that follow all elections, coalesce
with the DUP. A kite-flying notice that they may link with the SDLP
will be blown into the air and over the horizon, when their leadership
battle commences. Survival is the challenge they face.
The
Alliance Party (AP) fared well, in their terms, increasing their
votes significantly. It has to be noted that all parties increased
their vote, as the overall turnout increased,
reaching 64.8%, up from 54.9% in 2016.
The
major beneficiary is SF. The party now has 27 seats in the new 90
seat Assembly. The largest party is the DUP at 28. Adding the
perceived republican/nationalist seats (27, SF; 12, SDLP) gives 39.
Adding perceived unionists (DUP, 28; UUP, 10; Traditional Unionist
Voice, TUV, 1) also gives 39. Where the Alliance Party (8 seats), the
Green Party (2 seats), People Before Profit (1 seat) and Independent
(1 seat) will align themselves remains to be seen.
Coalitions
within the two local -isms (unionism and nationalism) are unlikely in
the near future. They will not be easily forged as conflict and
antipathy have been the order of the day since the Assembly, based in
Belfast, followed the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.
An
immediate sticking point on the formation of a new Executive to lead
the Assembly is agreement on the First and Deputy First Minister. The
DUP will seek to nominate for the First Minister and currently assert
they will nominate Arlene Foster, who was in place before the
election. She is mired in unresolved issues following a scandal
involving financial support for a scheme promoting wood-chip boilers.
SF have said they will not nominate for Deputy First Minister, if
that is the case. No one watching politics in Northern Ireland would
be surprised if both assertions were modified.
Post-election
talks begin today (6.3.2017), under the stewardship of James
Brokenshire, an MP from England, who serves as Secretary of State for
Northern Ireland on behalf of the UK government. His credentials as a
neutral broker are challenged, given that he is a member of the
Conservative and Unionist Party (Tory), headed by the UK Prime
Minister, Teresa May. He is the most powerful person in the room,
however, as the Westminster government rules Northern Ireland, where
a number of powers, such as those over education, health, culture and
agriculture, are devolved to the Assembly and Executive in Belfast.
Devolution
powers are ring-fenced by money from London, the so-called Block
Grant, annually delivered from the UK Treasury. When, and if, an
Executive gets up and running, among its first tasks will be to set a budget. This will not be an easy task, as it will have to satisfy
the local parties, but, primarily, it will have to serve the
interests of the Treasury, inherently conservative, regardless of the
government in power, and the Tory Party, hell-bent on austerity
economics, in the context of Brexit.
James
Brokenshire's talks are scheduled to last three weeks. If no Assembly
and Executive emerges, he can call another election. He is unlikely
to do that. A period of direct rule from London is more likely, perhaps a
form of partial direct rule, with London minsters taking some powers
and pushing through measures that local parties cannot stomach.
Versions of this have happened before and this seems the most likely
next step. Members of the new Assembly may lose their salaries if no
Executive is put in place.
This
leads to a scenario where people in the poorest part of the UK, the
people most dependent on public sector jobs and benefits, will feel
the full force of the austerity gale blowing out of London, as Storm
Brexit gathers pace. A snap UK election in May is possible as the
Tories take advantage of their success in delivering on the
referendum vote to leave the EU and drive the British Labour Party to
the outer edges of power.
Ironically,
despite the protestations by local parties in the North that they
have secured 'mitigations' to the Tory Party project of welfare
reform, many poorer and vulnerable people will suffer.
Thus
while political matters are different, somewhat, they remain
fundamentally the same. So it is in the North.
Meanwhile, in the South, historical travesties against mothers and babies by
Church and State literally rise from the grave in Galway; the police
service implodes on itself, while the Celtic Tiger bubbles up again,
with homelessness, particularly in Dublin, a rampant litmus test, as
rents and house prices rise. Talk of an economic recovery
echoes hollowly in the capital's financial centres, while people in
the rest of the country continue to struggle. And that's without
mentioning water charges.
It's
a tough gig being a politician, North or South. Power is elsewhere –
London, Brussels, global corporate HQs – while responsibility and
accountability pulse loudly locally. In the Trump Universe we now
occupy, with Brexit, in particular as it affects Scotland, the
biggest political driver in this part of the west of Europe, cultural
and social matters – the Irish language in the North and abortion
rights in the South – may light the fuse under the next round of
political changes, when things will be even more different, but also
still the same.
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