LET'S SWOT TRUMP

The votes are in. The decision is made. It's time to dust off the old flip chart, find four clean sheets of A3 flip-chart paper and a marker or two that haven't dried out since the last time you used them and left the caps off, before you became enthralled by laptops, projectors and power points. It's time to turn on the lights and get everyone thinking. It's time to SWOT Trump.

The arrival of the 'new' with the elevation of Donald Trump as Emperor of the Free World (Western Section) is a reversion to past glories, as if, along with the UK Brexit vote, the former empires of Reagan and Thatcher have been resurrected, this time not with the ruse of a cowboy film-star, but in the shell-persona of a celebrity tv game show presenter.

Thus, tools from that era need to be called upon. Let's SWOT Trump. Let's write up the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats for Trumpland, as the new Emperor flexes his shoulders in readiness for the Cloak of Power.

Strengths:

Well, Trump is based in that part of the Empire with the most nuclear weapons and the greatest military might generally. Plus the biggest arms' manufacturing sector. That's strength, though ironically of an increasingly enfeebled kind, in the face of suicide attacks and small operations not amenable to being blown up. Even 'mass punishments' have lost some of their appeal, though, tragically, not in Gaza. Competitors (Russia, China) lag behind, but have the capacity to be threatening. Allies (Israel) are essential for research and development as well as sales and as an out-post in a recalcitrant region. Trump may struggle with the fact that Israel is a religious state and not the religion he and many of his supporters, including the Klansmen, support. Associates (NATO, including France, Germany, UK) are unsettled. They are busy trying to sell armaments themselves, so they're also competitors, which is not a strength then, but a form of threat. Economically. Of course, Trump is at the head of the very biggest economy, which is a strength, though his own election illustrates the threats micro-economics can be to the big macro-globalisers of Wall Street and Washington. Ironically, rust-belt unemployed people want to buy the products made by global corporations in the cheap-labour countries in Asia. Could they be made, down the road, in green-shoot USA and still be afforded by workers there? How much for an iPod built in Omaha? Is that a strength?

Weaknesses:

Trump has to deliver. That's a weakness. You make promises, you must deliver. That's a form of threat. If the wall doesn't go up around Tijuana soon, Trump'll be chased out of Washington. Sure, he can send a few bulldozers up and down the banks of the Rio Grande and do a bit of ground work – loads of Irish lads could be brought in for that, though their illegal status maybe a problem. Is that a threat? A short run along the Google Map image of the US-Mexico border soon illustrates how weak the notion of a wall is. Another weakness is Trump's reliance on bullying, which is going out of style, generally. That is not to say that violence is not widespread and still the main driver for 'getting things done', but a noticeable chill factor surrounds it and is getting stronger. Sure, rancour and aggression have been on the rise across the world, notably in Europe in relation to international politics but Trump's imperium is weak in that populations may not have much stomach for belligerence overseas in the aftermath of confused debacles in Iraq, North Africa, Afghanistan and Syria. Of course, the practice of profiting from proxy wars has reached new heights, which may present Trumpland with opportunities.

Opportunities:

Every bombed out city needs to be rebuilt. Ask the shareholders of Haliburton, still basking in the glory of the money made from the re-building of post-Saddam Iraq. There will be opportunities for money-making in Syria, once an arrangement is arrived at with Putin and his oligarch friends. The carve-up of post-apocalypse Syria is Trump's biggest and most immediate opportunity. He, along with Putin’s oligarchs, will grab it.

Threats:
Disgruntled voters will feel let-down when the wall is not built, when the Muslims keep coming in, when the factories don't immediately re-open, when America isn't suddenly great … again. Expect fairly early assertions that a second term may be required, with the next Imperial election campaign getting underway promptly. And while Hilary Clinton is a spent force, don't be surprised if a younger Clinton, the bould Chelsea, doesn't make a burst in the outside lane in readiness for a future joust.

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